Prediction of the COVID-19 infectivity and the sustainable impact on public health under deep learning algorithm.

The aim is to explore the development trend of COVID-19 (Corona Virus Disease 2019) and predict the infectivity of 2019-nCoV (2019 Novel Coronavirus), as well as its impact on public health. First, the existing data are analyzed through data pre-processing to extract useful feature factors. Then, the LSTM (Long-Short Term Memory) prediction model in the deep learning algorithm is used to predict the epidemic situation in Hubei Province, outside Hubei nationwide, and the whole country, respectively. Meanwhile, the impact of intervention time changes on the epidemic situation is compared. The results show that the prediction results are almost consistent with the actual values. Specifically, Hubei Province abolishes quarantine restrictions after the Spring Festival holiday, and the first COVID-19 peak is reached in late February, while the second COVID-19 peak has been reached in early March. Finally, the cumulative number of diagnoses reaches 85,000 cases, with an increase of 15,000 cases compared with the nationwide cases outside Hubei under the continuous implementation of prevention and control measures. Under the prediction of the proposed LSTM model, if the nationwide implementation of prevention and control interventions is postponed by 5 days, the epidemic will peak in early March, and the cumulative number of diagnoses will be about 200,000; and if the intervention measures are implemented five days earlier, the epidemic will peak in mid-February, with a cumulative number of diagnoses of approximately 40,000. Meanwhile, the proposed LSTM model predicts the RMSE values of the epidemic situation in Hubei Province, outside Hubei nationwide, and the whole country as 34.63, 75.42, and 50.27, respectively. Under model comparison analysis, the prediction error of the proposed LSTM model is small and has better applicability over similar algorithms. The results show that the LSTM model is effective and has high performance in infectious disease prediction, and the research results can provide scientific and effective references for subsequent related research.

Minimally invasive capillary blood sampling methods.

INTRODUCTION: Whole blood samples, including arterial, venous, and capillary blood, are regularly used for disease diagnosis and monitoring. The global Covid-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for a more resilient screening capacity. Minimally invasive sampling techniques, such as capillary blood sampling, are routinely used for point of care testing in the home healthcare setting and clinical settings such as the Intensive Care Unit with less pain and wounding than conventional venepuncture. AREAS COVERED: In this manuscript, we aim to provide a overview of state-of-the-art of techniques for obtaining samples of capillary blood. We first review both established and novel methods for releasing blood from capillaries in the skin. Next, we provide a comparison of different capillary blood sampling methods based on their mechanism, testing site, puncture size, cost, wound geometry, healing, and perceptions of pain. Finally, we overview established and new methods for enhancing capillary blood collection. EXPERT OPINION: We expect that microneedles will prove to be a preferred option for paediatric blood collection. The ability of microneedles to collect a capillary blood sample without pain will improve paediatric healthcare outcomes. Jet injection may prove to be a useful method for facilitating both blood collection and drug delivery.

Prone position reduces the risk of patients with mild or moderate COVID-19 progressing to severe or even critical cases: a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: To investigate whether prone position can reduce the risk of patients with mild or moderate COVID-19 who progress to severe or critical illness. METHODS: The prone position group was treated in prone position on the day of admission in addition to conventional treatment. Indicators such as saturation of pulse oximetry (SpO2), heart rate, blood pressure, respiratory rate, and prone position-related adverse events were recorded before prone ventilation, 5 min after prone position and 30 min after prone position. Meanwhile, the cases of severe and critical patients, the percentage of transformation and the final clinical outcome of this group were analyzed. Conversion rates and mortality were calculated for patients with mild or moderate COVID-19 retrieved from the database who received only conventional care without combined prone positioning as control group. RESULTS: (1) A total of 34 patients were included in prone position group. There were significant differences in SpO2 between the first 4 days after admission and the day of discharge (F = 3.17, P < 0.001). (2) The main complications were back and neck muscle soreness (55.9%), followed by abdominal distension (8.9%). (3) In control group, a total of 4873 cases of mild and moderate patients were included from 19 literatures, with an average deterioration rate of 22.7% and mortality rate of 1.7%. (4) In prone position group, there were no severe or critical transformation cases and also no death cases. The prone position group had a significantly lower deterioration rate when compared with the control group (χ2 = 9.962, P < 0.01). CONCLUSION: Prone position improves SpO2 in patients with mild or moderate COVID-19. It can also reduce the percentage of mild or moderate patients progressing to severe or critical patients. The application of prone position is a simple, feasible, safe and effective treatment method in such patients.

The Role of the Gastrointestinal System in Neuroinvasion by SARS-CoV-2.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is one of the most devastating pandemics in history. SARS-CoV-2 has infected more than 100 million people worldwide, leading to more than 3.5 million deaths. Initially, the clinical symptoms of SARS-CoV-2 infection were thought to be restricted to the respiratory system. However, further studies have revealed that SARS-CoV-2 can also afflict multiple other organs, including the gastrointestinal tract and central nervous system. The number of gastrointestinal and neurological manifestations after SARS-CoV-2 infection has been rapidly increasing. Most importantly, patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 often exhibit comorbid symptoms in the gastrointestinal and neurological systems. This review aims to explore the pathophysiological mechanisms of neuroinvasion by SARS-CoV-2. SARS-CoV-2 may affect the nervous system by invading the gastrointestinal system. We hope that this review can provide novel ideas for the clinical treatment of the neurological symptoms of SARS-CoV-2 infection and references for developing prevention and treatment strategies.

Clinical Factors and Quantitative CT Parameters Associated With ICU Admission in Patients of COVID-19 Pneumonia: A Multicenter Study.

The clinical spectrum of COVID-19 pneumonia is varied. Thus, it is important to identify risk factors at an early stage for predicting deterioration that require transferring the patients to ICU. A retrospective multicenter study was conducted on COVID-19 patients admitted to designated hospitals in China from Jan 17, 2020, to Feb 17, 2020. Clinical presentation, laboratory data, and quantitative CT parameters were also collected. The result showed that increasing risks of ICU admission were associated with age > 60 years (odds ratio [OR], 12.72; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.42-24.61; P = 0.032), coexisting conditions (OR, 5.55; 95% CI, 1.59-19.38; P = 0.007) and CT derived total opacity percentage (TOP) (OR, 8.0; 95% CI, 1.45-39.29; P = 0.016). In conclusion, older age, coexisting conditions, larger TOP at the time of hospital admission are associated with ICU admission in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. Early monitoring the progression of the disease and implementing appropriate therapies are warranted.

Co-infections of SARS-CoV-2 with multiple common respiratory pathogens in infected children: A retrospective study.

ABSTRACT: Since the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan, considerable attention has been paid on its epidemiology and clinical characteristics in children patients. However, it is also crucial for clinicians to summarize and investigate the co-infection of SARS-CoV-2 in children.We retrospectively reviewed the clinical manifestations, laboratory findings, and imaging characteristics of COVID-19 patients in co-infection group (CI, n = 27) and single infection group (SI, n = 54). Samples were tested for multiple pathogens.A high incidence (27/81, 33%) of co-infection in children with COVID-19 was revealed. The most frequent co-infected pathogen was mycoplasma pneumoniae (MP, 20/81, 25%), followed by virus (6/81, 7%), and bacteria (4/81, 5%). No significant difference in clinical characteristics, laboratory examinations, or hospital stay was observed between the patients with co-infections and those with monomicrobial, only lower in white blood cell counts (CI: 5.54 ±â€Š0.36 vs SI: 7.38 ±â€Š0.37, P = .002), neutrophil counts (CI: 2.20 ±â€Š0.20 vs SI: 2.92 ±â€Š0.23, P = .024) and lymphocyte counts (CI: 2.72 ±â€Š0.024 vs SI: 3.87 ±â€Š0.28, P = .006). Compared with the patients with monomicrobial, chest imaging of those with co-infections showed consolidation in more cases (CI: 29.6% vs SI: 11.1%, P = .038) and duration of positive in nucleic acid was shorter (CI: 6.69 ±â€Š0.82 vs SI: 9.69 ±â€Š0.74, P = .015).Co-infection was relatively common in children with COVID-19, almost 1/3 had co-infection, most commonly caused by MP. Co-infection did not cause a significant exacerbation in clinical manifestations.